Thinking Ahead
Non-workers of the World, Unite!
Not too long ago, a financial news program on NPR discussed a recently-conducted survey. It wanted to learn what the CEOs of major corporations were thinking about.
It turns out that many CEOs spent a lot of time thinking about AI, and—for most of those who did so—what spurred their interest was the effect that AI could have on their businesses, both positive and negative. That’s hardly surprising, since AI is a major subject for everyone these days (or should be).
It even got me thinking.
We are at a moment in our cultural evolution (and possibly genetic evolution) that seems potentially significant. In the past, when major technological changes occurred, we never really understood what future effects they might cause. So, what might our lives be like—say a hundred years from now—because of AI’s influence now?
Given our species’ track record (in predicting the future), it would be exceptionally foolish to venture a guess about next year, let alone a century hence. After all, a century ago, people assumed that—by now—we’d be living in cities crowded with flying taxis. How often have you taken a flying taxi, lately?
It never stopped anyone in the past, and it’s not about to stop me now.
CEOs (indeed, all business people) are primarily concerned with The Bottom Line. Increasing profits (and holding on to them) is their primary concern. One of the main items cutting into their profitability is the cost of labor. AI is tempting them with the possibility of reducing—or even eliminating—labor costs. This will be very hard to resist.
Carried to the extreme—reductio ad absurdum—in the future, there will be no jobs that require the efforts of humans. The world will have zero employees. We will live in a utopian world that has gone much further than the old Marxist goal of workers controlling the means (and profits) of their own work.
Workers wouldn’t need to work at all.
Unfortunately for corporations, a world filled with people who have no income is a world that doesn’t have consumers—no consumers, no market, no profits. It would not be an ideal situation (for the corporations, or for the ex-workers who still want the corporations’ products). The corporations (who, after all, actually control society and its institutions, such as the government) would have to make some compromises to get away with eliminating the need for paid employees.
One way this might work (so to speak) is for all those non-working former employees to receive a living “wage”—but not from the corporate account. I’m sure the CEOs will prefer the “paychecks” to be issued by the federal exchequer. The stipend will have to be sufficient to cover all living expenses, for their entire lives, but not necessarily enough to put into savings. There will be no need for savings (for retirement or dealing with unexpected expenses), since the government will cover the cost of everything that might present itself.
How will the government pay for this “best of all possible worlds”?
Taxes, of course—isn’t that always the answer—but who would pay those taxes?
Obviously not the folks on the dole (that would be the economic equivalent of circular reasoning, and an infinitely-regressing feedback loop). The only option will be to tax the corporations themselves. It would have been their own fault, right? Since they eliminated their payrolls, they will have to pay a tax equivalent to the now-missing payrolls. That bitter pill will be easier to swallow as their corporate tax rate will also be lowered—allowing their profit margin to remain unchanged.
Some workers might wish to improve the quality of their lives. They can always supplement their guaranteed income by taking jobs for pay. This will cause them to have some taxable income, but would also fill any remaining jobs that AI cannot render obsolete.
Who knows? Maybe a century from now, people—not me, of course, I don’t plan to be here—will be wondering why people ever went to work. But, if (as is very likely) I am completely wrong in my predictions, I will never know.
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